Diagnose Solar Production Drop
Goal
Diagnose why a solar system is producing less than expected. Customer notices drop on monitoring app + calls for diagnosis. Methodical investigation isolates cause.
Prerequisites
- Multimeter (DC voltage capable)
- Infrared camera (helpful but optional)
- Production history (from monitoring app)
- Pyranometer (irradiance meter) - for precise diagnostic
- 1-3 hours per investigation
Initial review (before going on-site)
- Pull production history: today, week, month, year
- Compare to design: was system producing at design level previously?
- Weather correlation: was the drop on cloudy days only?
- Time of day: drop at specific hours (morning, evening = shading)?
- Inverter logs: any error codes, ground faults?
Symptom branching
Symptom 1: Sudden drop (yesterday OK, today not)
Cause 1: Equipment failure
- Inverter fault
- DC disconnect tripped
- Failed combiner / fuse
Diagnosis: check inverter display + status; check fuses.
Fix: replace faulty component.
Cause 2: Weather
- Cloudy / overcast day
- Compare neighbors' systems if possible
Wait for clear day; should recover.
Cause 3: Soiling event
- Pollen, dust storm, recent fire smoke
Fix: clean panels.
Symptom 2: Gradual drop over weeks/months
Cause 1: Soiling accumulation
- Dust, dirt, bird droppings building up
- Especially in dry climates
Fix: clean panels (see Maintenance SOP)
Cause 2: Shading changes
- Tree growth
- New construction blocking sun
Fix: trim trees; verify with customer; consider relocation (rare)
Cause 3: Panel degradation
- Some degradation is normal (0.5-1% per year)
- Excessive: faulty panels
Fix: identify under-performing panel; warranty claim if possible.
Symptom 3: Drop only at certain time of day
Cause: shading
- Morning shading from tree to east
- Afternoon shading from chimney/dormer
Solution: identify source; trim or remove if possible.
Symptom 4: One string of panels producing less
Cause 1: Cable issue
- Loose connection in string
- UV degradation of cable insulation
- Animal damage
Diagnosis: measure DC at each panel + at end of string.
Fix: replace bad cable, tighten connections.
Cause 2: Single bad panel
- Hot spot, internal damage
- Damage from hail (sometimes invisible)
Diagnosis: IR camera shows hot spot; or measure each panel individually.
Fix: replace panel (warranty if < 25 years old).
Cause 3: Bypass diode failure
- Internal panel diodes failed
- Single panel dragging down the string
Fix: replace panel.
Symptom 5: All strings producing equally low
Cause 1: Inverter issue
- Inverter not converting DC efficiently
- Inverter failure imminent
Diagnosis: measure DC in vs AC out; calculate efficiency (should be >95%).
Fix: repair or replace inverter.
Cause 2: Grid issue
- Inverter throttling due to high grid voltage
- Less common; check inverter logs
Fix: contact utility if grid voltage out of tolerance.
Symptom 6: Monitoring system shows no production but inverter shows production
Cause: monitoring system fault
- Lost internet connectivity
- App / server issue
- Hardware failure
Diagnosis: verify inverter is producing; check monitoring system separately.
Fix: re-establish internet; replace monitoring module if needed.
Diagnostic tools
Multimeter (DC):
- Test individual panel output (open-circuit voltage Voc)
- Test string voltage
- Test inverter input/output
Typical Voc: 35-50V per panel; 200-600V per string.
Clamp meter (DC current):
- Test string current
- Compares to design + other strings
Infrared camera:
- Identifies hot spots on panels
- Reveals internal damage invisible to eye
- thermal cameras adequate
Pyranometer:
- Measures actual solar irradiance
- Normalizes production to weather conditions
- Premium tool ()
Calculation: expected vs actual
System producing < 80% of expected after adjustment for:
- Weather (cloudy = less)
- Time of year (winter = less)
- Time of day (morning/evening = less)
- Soiling (dust = less)
= INVESTIGATE.
Expected daily output:
For 6kW system in mid-sunny region:
- Summer day: 30-40 kWh
- Winter day: 15-25 kWh
- Cloudy day: 10-20 kWh
Compare to monitoring app data.
When to call manufacturer
- Panel showing damage covered by warranty
- Inverter under warranty malfunctioning
- Mounting hardware failed
- Battery (if applicable) under warranty
Most panel/inverter manufacturers handle warranty directly. Document with photos + readings.
Production decline expectations
| Year | Expected production (of nameplate) |
|---|---|
| Year 1 | 100% |
| Year 5 | 97-99% |
| Year 10 | 92-95% |
| Year 15 | 88-92% |
| Year 20 | 82-88% |
| Year 25 | 80-85% (most warranties guarantee this) |
If a system is 5 years old + producing 85%, that's outside expected; investigate.
When customer is wrong about a "drop"
Sometimes customers misread monitoring data:
- Comparing winter to summer (drop is seasonal, normal)
- Today's production to a particularly sunny day (variation is normal)
- Monitoring app data is incorrect (server issues)
Educate without dismissing. Then verify whether real drop exists.
Common false alarms
- Cloudy day vs sunny day (huge difference)
- Smoke from wildfire reduces irradiance
- Snow on panels = 0% production (clear after melt)
- Heavy frost = reduced production (normal)
- App not syncing = appears as no production (data not real-time issue)
Always verify actual production at inverter before declaring a system problem.
The most overlooked production drop cause: BIRD DROPPINGS NOT VISIBLE FROM GROUND. A spot of bird droppings the size of a quarter shades enough of a panel to drop output 5-15% (bypass diode kicks in but panel functions at reduced capacity). On a customer's annual visit, you may find these - the customer didn't see them because they're on the roof. Annual cleaning has compounding ROI over the system's 25-year life.
References
- NABCEP diagnostic curriculum
- Manufacturer troubleshooting guides
- SEIA performance standards